Global Resource Consumption to Triple by 2050

As usual we get the handwringing.  In the end resourceconsumption will be huge and every human being will participate.  Get over it and allow pricing to do itsjob.  The demand increases slowly enoughto allow price signals to do their work.

To start with we are entering aworld of freely available energy that will not be tied to fuels.  Goodbye to coal, oil and uranium.  Just that will make a lot of other resources muchcheaper.  If power drops in cost by anorder of magnitude, electrical separation becomes cheap.  That means aluminum becomes very competitive inplace of steel.

Recall that all materials haveslightly more expensive alternatives and a price increase brings these on.  Just what do you think the oil sands are allabout except the replacement of cheap oil with great gobs of expensive oil?

Oh well, as long as there areforecasters and simple models, we will have to listen to the end of happiness.

Global resource consumption to triple by 2050: UN

by Staff Writers

United Nations (AFP) May 12, 2011

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Global_resource_consumption_to_triple_by_2050_UN_999.html

Global consumption of natural resources could almost triple to 140 billion tonsa year by 2050 unless nations take drastic steps, the United Nations warnedThursday.

A UN environment panel saidthe world cannot sustain the tearaway rate of use of minerals, ores and fossiland plant fuels. It called on governments to "decouple" economicgrowth from natural resource consumption.

With the world population expected to hit 9.3 billion by 2050 anddeveloping nations becoming more prosperous, the report warned "theprospect of much higher resource consumption levels is far beyond what islikely sustainable."

A UN Environment Programme (UNEP)panel said the world is already running out of cheap and quality sources ofsome essential materials such as oil, copper and gold, which in turn needrising volumes of fuel and water to produce.

It said governments must find ways to do more with less, at a fasterrate than economic growth -- the notion of "decoupling".

"We must realize that prosperity and well-being do not depend onconsuming ever-greater quantities of resources," said the report.

"Decoupling is not about stopping growth. It's about doing morewith less. Global resource consumption is exploding. It's not a trend that isin any way sustainable."

Total world resource use has risen from about six billion tons in 1900to 49 billion tons in 2000 and has already gone up to an estimated 59 billiontons now.

Currently people in rich nations consume an average of 16 tons ofminerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass -- fuels and other products fromplants -- per year. In some wealthy countries the figure rises to 40 tons.

In India,however, the average person only consumes four tons per year, the report said.

The panel said there has to be a major rethink of resource use and"massive investment"in technological, financial and social innovation to at least freezeconsumption levels in wealthy countries.

"People believe that environmental 'bads' are the price we mustpay for economic 'goods'. However, we cannot and need not continue to act as ifthis trade-off is inevitable," said UNEP executive director Achim Steiner.

Mark Swilling, a professor at the University of Stellenbosch in SouthAfrica who was one of the authors of the report, said rapid industrializationand the growing population was leading to the resource crisis.

"There is another billion middle-class consumers on the way as aresult of rapid industrialization in developing countries,"he said.

He said that current rates of efficiency to make goods and servicesmean that "we are looking at that massive growth to 140 billiontonnes."

With populations in rich countries stabilizing or falling, the mainchallenge would be in developing countries.

The latest of a series of UNEP reports on economic and environmentalsustainability said decoupling has started but is not being activated quicklyenough.

Between 1980 and 2002, the resources required for 1,000 dollars ofeconomic output fell from 2.1 tons to 1.6 tons. The increasing move of peoplefrom the countryside to cities as helped as this aids campaigns to achieveeconomies of scale, the report said.

The authors praised Germanyand Japanfor their move to set goals for energy and resource productivity. Ithighlighted how South Africa'sconstitution requires "ecologically sustainable development and the use ofnatural resources."

China has also set out to build an"ecological civilization" and the report said that China would bea "test case" because of its huge population and growingindustrialization.

"The measures that Chinaintroduces to reconcile these objectives will be of crucial significance forevery other developing country with similar policy intentions," the reportsaid.

A world summit on sustainable development is to be held in Rio de Janeiro in Junenext year.